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Kurt's Corner
Birth and death trends serve as a mirror of state and region’s migration and aging trends
The provisional birth and death numbers recently released by Michigan's Department of Community Health show the effects of the demographic shifts taking place across the state and in Southeast Michigan.
While there are individual exceptions to each trend, the overall pattern that leads to a decrease in births is made up of three factors: out-migration of younger residents, contributing to decreasing numbers of women in their child-bearing years (15-44 years); aging of the population in general, contributing to both the loss of women and increasing numbers of deaths; and finally a move toward delaying marriage and childbirth, resulting in smaller families and often a choice of not having children at all.
Figure 1 illustrates the general trend of decreasing births (with minor exceptions) that has occurred in the state since the 1990 high of 153,080. The newly released provisional numbers for 2007 show the lowest annual birth total over the 18-year period - 123,383. This decrease of almost 50,000 births equates to a drop of 19.4 percent.
Figure 1. Births in Michigan, 1990 - 2007
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The number of deaths in the state has shown a great deal more year-to-year fluctuations than have births (Figure 2). 2007's total of 86,843 represents the fifth highest total since 1990, and represents a 10.2 percent increase over 1990's total of 78,501. The general aging of the population, spurred by the baby boomer generation, whose oldest members began to hit 62 years of age in 2008, will no doubt begin to drive a pattern of increasing deaths going forward. Many counties in the state, particularly in the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula, have been experiencing negative natural increase, as their death numbers are exceeding their births.
Natural increase is one of the demographic factors that effect an area's population. When natural increase is positive (births exceed deaths) the population grows. When natural increase is a negative (deaths exceed births) the population declines. In 1990, Michigan's births exceeded deaths by 74,579. Provisional numbers for 2007 result in a natural increase value that has declined to just 36,900. This 50.5 percent drop in population growth due to natural increase, coupled with the recently increasing rate of out-migration, points toward continued population losses for Michigan in the next several years.
Figure 2. Deaths in Michigan, 1990 - 2007
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Southeast Michigan Trends
Macomb County experienced the greatest change between 2006 and 2007, as a result of a significant decrease in births (from 10,128 to 8,546) and a slight increase in deaths. The population growth due to natural increase (births - deaths) has fallen from a high of 4,783 in 1990 to a low of 1,074 in 2007.
Of all the counties in Southeast Michigan, Macomb County has the highest median age, and share of the population 65 years and over. Thus one would expect a gradually increasing number of deaths. The Macomb County Planning Commission is making an effort to get ahead of the curve by engaging in a very innovative and much needed effort to track the aging of the population and prepare its community leaders for the housing, service and tax effects of this trend. As for births, Macomb County had managed, due to the heavy in-migration of younger families, to stem the demographic tide of decreasing births. It appears, however, that the heavy losses in the manufacturing sector have resulted in a reversal of the migration trend and births have taken a large hit.
Figure 3. Births, Deaths and Natural Increase in Macomb County, 1990 - 2007
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Oakland County served as the exception to the rule as its recent trend of decreasing births was actually reversed in 2007. The number of births increased from 14,387 in 2006 to 14,968 in 2007. Nevertheless, the 2007 total was still 12 percent below the high point reached in 1990, when the county experienced 17,008 births. It is not possible to know where the birth increases are taking place until the final numbers come in from the state which delineate births and deaths by community. The 600-birth increase was offset to some degree by an increase in deaths, from 9,068 in 2006 to 9,259 in 2007. The result was a slight growth in natural increase, which was still 38.7 percent below that of 1990.
Figure 4. Births, Deaths and Natural Increase in Oakland County, 1990 - 2007
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The 2007 provisional estimates released by the state only go to the county level, so Wayne County must be looked at in its entirety, rather than as two components - Detroit and Out-Wayne. Trends up through 2006 demonstrate the effect of Detroit's out-migration, coupled with decreases in teen births. 2006 births in Detroit represented their lowest level since 1990 - 13,016 vs. 24,129 - a decrease of 46 percent. While 2006 deaths showed a slight up tick from 2005, they still were 25 percent below the high that also occurred in 1990. Out-Wayne County experienced an increase in births and a decrease in deaths between 2005 and 2006. When compared with 1990 however, births were down by 13 percent while deaths were up by 2 percent.
Now let's look at the 2007 data for Wayne County as a whole. Births fell from 27,383 in 2006 to 25,611 in 2007, representing a decrease of 37 percent since 1990. While it is anticipated that Detroit will once again experience a decrease, it is unknown what share of the overall decrease that will represent. Deaths in Wayne County dropped slightly from 2006 - 2007 (18,576 and 18,486). Taken together, births and deaths resulted in a drop of 19 percent in natural increase, from 8,807 in 2006 to 7,125 in 2007. This trend, coupled with the continuing large out-migration, signals a continuing loss of population in the county.
Figure 5. Births, Deaths and Natural Increase in Wayne County, 1990 - 2007
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The basis of demographic change in any area derives from the interplay of vital statistics (births and deaths) and migration/immigration patterns. In order to plan for schools, health care, housing and services, we must pay close attention to these factors.
United Way's Research Department will continue to monitor national, regional and local trends across the wide expanse of demographic, socioeconomic, economic and housing issues. Not only will this help to inform our Agenda work and track outcomes, but it will also allow United Way to assist our grantees tell their stories and further support the efforts of the region's civic and foundation communities as they strive to improve the quality of life for all residents in southeast Michigan.
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